Client Update - 27th June 2025

The NATO Summit, held in The Hague this week, was marked by a clear effort from alliance members to address and accommodate the priorities of U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly regarding defence spending and keeping the US committed to NATO. Satisfying Trump’s notoriously short attention span, the NATO leaders produced a condensed meeting format to keep Trump engaged. NATO’s agenda was intentionally centred on Trump’s favoured issue of defence spending, with other topics, such as Ukraine and the Iran-Israel ceasefire, taking a secondary role.

NATO remain concerned that Trump will not back up Article 5, the alliance’s core principle of collective defence. This is the key point of membership, that states that if one member is attacked, all other members consider it an attack on themselves and will assist the attacked country. However, each country can decide what kind of help to provide, which may or may not include military force. Ironically, Article 5 has only been invoked once, by the US after the September 11th attacks in 2001.

The dialogue used around Trump was evidently deferential and was designed to encourage Trump to feel part of the NATO family, as Russia continues to lurk on the border of the Baltic states. Trump’s comparison of Israel and Iran to unruly children who needed strong language to be controlled, led NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to comment bizarrely and comically that, “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language,” referring to Trump’s blunt and vocal approach to international conflicts. Rutte later clarified that he was not literally calling Trump "daddy," but was using a metaphor to illustrate how some allies see the U.S. as a paternal figure within NATO, often looking to Washington for leadership and reassurance.

Trump and Rutte evidently get on well, as the meeting finished with Rutte sending Trump a private congratulatory message about the summit’s achievements, which of course Trump then immediately published on social media. The language used was quite something.

“Mr President, dear Donald, congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, that was truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do. It makes us all safer.” “You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. It was not easy, but we've got them all signed onto 5 percent!” (referring to the new NATO defence spending pledge). He added, “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done. Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win. Safe travels and see you at His Majesty's dinner.”

The most significant decision was indeed the agreement among the 32 NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP—a move directly linked to Trump’s longstanding demands that European allies contribute more financially to the alliance, a point he has pressed for years. Trump described the new commitment as “beneficial,” emphasising that it would provide NATO countries with enhanced capabilities and address his concerns about “freeloading” by other members.

Trump himself acknowledged the “love and passion” he witnessed from allied leaders, suggesting he felt more positively about the alliance after the summit than before. So ultimately “job done” by NATO, Trump has promised support and maybe, just maybe, Putin is listening. What a strange world we live in. Do have a good weekend.