Client Update - 11th October 2024

After Sir Keir Starmer’s big win for Labour this summer, it looked like UK politics might settle down following years of Brexit-induced turbulence. The Conservative leadership race has just blown that notion away.

Conservative party lawmakers — their much-reduced number adjusting to life in opposition — unexpectedly knocked out the centrist candidate James Cleverly and narrowed the contest down to two right wingers. Kemi Badenoch, the self-styled “anti-woke” candidate, relishes a fight, most recently criticizing maternity pay as “excessive” and stated that some civil servants should be in jail. She says what she thinks and there is some merit to this. Whereas Robert Jenrick has crafted a new image as an immigration hardliner, resigning from Rishi Sunak’s government saying the former prime minister wasn’t going far enough. Is he really on the right, or does he just see this positioning as an opportunity to lead the Tory party in the face of significant pressure for votes leaking out to the Reform party?

Either candidate could indeed help the Tories chase voters lost to Reform UK, the party of chief Brexit advocate and Donald Trump acolyte Nigel Farage. Regardless of who wins, the Conservatives are indeed about to lurch further to the right.

The Tory trajectory mirrors developments across Europe, from Austria’s dabbling with the far right to success for populist parties in Germany and the Netherlands.

It is true that Labour has a huge majority and is only three months in office, yet a series of missteps by Starmer raise questions over his judgment that could negatively impact voter perception just 100 days into his leadership. His mixed messages along with confused guidance from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, leading up to the budget on the 30th October have not helped matters.

The UK’s dire finances leading into the budget mean the new government will struggle to avoid either angering those new voters, it won over to secure its landslide, or die hard labour supporters, by failing to bring about the change that Starmer campaigned on. All of which leaves an opening for a pugilistic opposition leader with a populist leaning to landing blows and shaping the future debate, especially on immigration.

Looking back at the week, it was a surprise to see former home secretary James Cleverly eliminated in Wednesday’s ballot of Tory MPs, following Tom Tugendhat who was knocked out on Tuesday. Ms Badenoch won 42 votes and Mr Jenrick 41 votes, to Mr Cleverly’s 37 votes in the latest ballot, with 120 Tory MPs having taken part.

The final round of the contest will now see Conservative Party members across the UK vote to select the successor to Rishi Sunak. The result will be announced on November 2nd. Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick are both seen as candidates favoured by the right of the Conservative Party, while Mr Cleverly was thought of as a more centre-ground Tory.

The latest result has upset many predictions in Westminster and beyond, as Mr Cleverly was seen as the bookmakers’ favourite to win the contest, after Tuesday’s round of voting, and a strong showing at the Conservative conference. It remains unclear whether tactical voting by supporters of Cleverly (who were trying to influence which opponent he would face off against), ended up with his supporters forgetting to actually vote for him.

UK Politics is indeed a murky proposition and if you need further proof, as of today, you can read Boris Johnson’s account of his time as Conservative party leader in his new book, Unleashed. It is interesting that he seems to remember more about party gate when writing his book, than he did when he was being questioned as prime minister. Whether you love him or loathe him, he was indeed a character, and perhaps the best route back for the Conservatives is to have someone who stands out as a leader.  I do believe that in at least one of the candidates for leader of the opposition, you have just that. We shall see.

In the next three weeks we will have a crucially important budget, a new leader of the conservatives and a new US President. Let us draw a breath and see what awaits us. These are indeed interesting times. Do have a good weekend.