Client Update - 10th October 2025

Last week was the turn of the Labour party, this week was the Conservative party conference. Rather like a game of cricket on a wet day, there is some advantage to batting second – you have heard Labour’s key themes, and you have had the weekend to cunningly plan to undermine them!

Now, at this point I should explain that I have had to write this week’s update a little earlier than usual due to work commitments, however Wednesday saw the Conservative leader on the podium, so I have enough from that speech alone, even if I just repeat her amusing and unsubtle veiled attack on Nigel Farage – “never wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty, and the pig likes it”. However, unlike last week’s conference, there was no direct mention of him at all.

So this was the Kemi Badenoch her supporters moved into the big job in the Conservative party and the one that we haven’t seen much of in recent months. She initially set out that this was not just a political party, it was her family – she married the deputy chairman of her association after all.

As she moved through the gears, she focussed on the promise to scrap stamp duty on your main residence, which is estimated by the Tories to cost about £9bn a year, and allegedly has the support of economists. This is because stamp duty distorts the property market, discouraging people from downsizing or moving to take a new job therefore disrupting growth.

The tax is currently charged at different rates on different portions of property prices on residential properties costing more than £125,000 unless you are a first-time buyer. Scotland and Wales have different systems, and the Conservatives said it would be for the devolved administrations to decide whether to follow suit.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects stamp duty on residential property to bring in revenues of £10.1bn in 2024-25. This is due to rise to £19.3bn by 2029-2030, partly because the threshold at which the duty becomes payable will not rise with inflation, and partly because the OBR expects the government’s planning reforms to lead to more house sales. About half of this represents tax paid by people buying their primary residence, rather than a second home, the Conservatives say. The opposition party claims the Labour government’s current plans for stamp duty represent a “stealth tax,” because the £125,000 threshold at which 2% stamp duty is payable was set in 2014. More than half of all homebuyers paid the 5% rate on part of their purchase in 2023-24, the Conservatives noted, compared with just one in four in 2013-14.

The Conservative party can only come good on this pledge should it achieve a majority at the next election. We can all dream. Speaking at the Conservative party conference, Badenoch made a clear point that the current property market is not operating effectively. “We believe that owning your own home gives you a real stake in society, roots in your community. But our housing market is not working as it should.”

“There is a big barrier that keeps getting in the way.” Stamp Duty she means. As a result, Badenoch said the next Conservative government will abolish stamp duty “on your home.” This measure was “strongly” supported by Home Owners Alliance chief executive, Paula Higgins, who pointed out that “Home ownership is the foundation of a fairer and more secure society — but stamp duty has denied that opportunity to too many for too long. By scrapping it, we don’t just help first-time buyers: we unlock supply, free up stock, stimulate related trades and get the housing market moving. This will be a real vote winner.” We shall see.

It was a shame she did not go further and talk about abolishing stamp duty on UK shares as well. It was only recently that we saw AstraZeneca announce a US listing to access deeper capital markets and benefit from the continuing wave of exuberance in US equities, but part of this also relates to stamp duty dampening the appeal of buying UK shares. I hope to hear more on this subject.

It was certainly a speech that would resonate with the Tory homelands. It focussed on aspirational wealth, family, enterprise, home ownership, and also personal responsibility for your own success in life. She closed by reminding everyone that “Labour fails when it follows its principles, we fail when we don’t follow ours.” Well done Kemi – I hope you like a challenge.

This is all unfolding as we hear that the OBR is indeed planning to cut future growth forecasts in the UK by 0.2% per annum – opening up a further £20bn black hole in the UK finances. If the chancellor can find growth opportunities to talk up, along with freezes to current personal allowances and tax bandings, perhaps the budget in November will not be as bad as we fear. However unlikely, I will hold onto that hope moving forwards. Do have a good weekend.