Client Update - 10th July 2026

Britain's main political parties have refused to contest the Clacton by-election triggered by Nigel Farage's resignation, describing the vote as a political stunt designed to distract from ongoing investigations into his financial declarations. Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Restore Britain have all ruled out standing candidates, leaving Farage likely to face only minor-party and independent challengers. Reform UK argues the move demonstrates opponents are unwilling to challenge Farage directly, while critics say the by-election is an unnecessary and costly exercise.

Not to be outdone, bristling from criticism that he intervened in the football world cup, US President Donald Trump declared that the interim ceasefire arrangement with Iran was effectively "over" following renewed hostilities in the Gulf region. The United States conducted additional strikes against Iranian military targets after attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned that further Iranian actions could result in additional military responses and suggested negotiations with Tehran were no longer a priority. The developments have increased geopolitical tensions and contributed to a rise in oil prices as markets react to concerns over energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

This news came on the back of minutes released from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that showed a significant tension at the heart of US monetary policy. Under new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has adopted a less communicative stance, giving markets fewer clues about future policy. However, the June meeting minutes provided enough information to raise an important question: if policymakers are increasingly concerned about inflation, why did they choose not to raise interest rates?

The minutes suggest that committee members broadly view the labour market as stable while remaining worried that inflation remains too high and could become even more persistent. Members noted that inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for much of the past five years, and some emerging price pressures appear unrelated to temporary factors such as tariffs or energy costs. Several members even argued that there was a case for increasing the federal funds rate.

Despite these concerns, the Fed left rates unchanged. One possible explanation is that policymakers believe current inflation pressures may be temporary rather than the beginnings of a self-sustaining inflationary cycle. In this view, inflation may rise temporarily due to specific economic shocks but eventually subside without aggressive intervention. However, in 2021/22, similar assessment by previous Fed leadership underestimated inflation's persistence and led to policy mistakes.

A second possibility is that Warsh and the committee hoped that stronger rhetoric alone would tighten financial conditions. By signalling concern about inflation, markets may price in higher future rates, producing a tightening effect without the Fed needing to act immediately. Some evidence of this has appeared in short-term interest rate markets and futures pricing. However, this approach may be difficult to sustain if inflation remains stubbornly above target.

Closer to home, we are delighted to inform you that, having been acquired by Shackleton Advisers last year, Chetwood Wealth Management will soon be rebranded to Shackleton. This is an exciting new chapter for our firm, and while 'the name on the door' will change, the things that matter most to you will stay exactly as they have always been; you'll continue to receive the same personal service, and benefit from the relationship you've built with us over time. The transition to the Shackleton name and brand will start soon, and of course we'll keep you fully informed every step of the way, providing regular updates to ensure you know exactly what to expect. You will shortly see a banner added to the top of the Chetwood website, which will direct you to the Shackleton website. There, you will find plenty of information about Shackleton, and what the transition means for you as a client of Chetwood. As always, should you have any questions, please do get in touch. Have a good weekend.